What are the predictors of specific sports ability?

At present, there is no absolutely unified list of predictive indicators in the academic community and first-line training circles, but in practical applications, the most valid and widely recognized ones are mainly physiological indicators that are strongly tied to special events, special technical fitness indicators, and competition psychological trait indicators that are often ignored.

When I was doing testing with the provincial women's basketball youth training team, I saw many cases where the wrong children were screened out. For example, children who were initially screened out based on common jumping and endurance indicators later changed to sprinting but got better results - to put it bluntly, all physiological indicators must be tied. It is only useful to determine special events. When measuring long-distance running, you need to look at the maximum oxygen uptake and lactate threshold. When measuring sprinting, you need to look at the proportion of fast-twitch muscle fibers and the natural value of cadence and stride length. When measuring diving, you need to look at the stability of vestibular function. If you use general indicators randomly, it is easy to miss good ideas. There is also controversy in the industry now. Many people advocate direct genetic testing. Testing genetic loci related to athletic ability such as ACTN3 will determine talent. However, many old coaches do not believe it at all. They said that in the past two years, there were three sprinters who tested the optimal ACTN3 type. After two years of training, they did not even make it out of the provincial competition preliminaries. Genes can only draw an upper limit, and there is no telling whether they can be touched.

Just looking at physiological data is not enough. In many cases, the prediction of specific fitness is more accurate. This indicator is not like physiological data that can give a direct value. It depends more on the match between the athlete's physical condition and the special requirements. For example, in badminton selection, the taller is not the better. Instead, it depends on the explosive power of the wrist and the flexibility of hip rotation. There was a 14-year-old girl in the team who was only 1.63 meters tall. Her standing height was 6 centimeters shorter than the players of the same age group, but the initial speed of the backhand swing was 10 kilometers per hour faster than the players two years older than her. Now she has entered the national youth team as a key training target.

In addition to the hard indicators that can be seen on the court, the psychological traits hidden in the character are actually the core reference for predicting special abilities. Many people are at the top level when training, but fall off when it comes to official competitions. There was a sprinter before, and the 100 meters in daily training was stable at around 10.7 seconds. When the official competition came, he was stunned for 0.2 seconds when he heard the starting gun. The best competition result was only 11.1 seconds. For people with this kind of poor mental toughness, even if the physiological conditions are top-notch, the upper limit of special abilities will not be much higher. There are also differences on how to measure psychological indicators. Academics believe that standardized psychological scales can be used to measure them. First-line coaches recognize performance in simulated games. After all, scales can be faked, but the real reaction when the score is at the end of the game cannot be faked.

In fact, to put it bluntly, these indicators are never used alone. Just like when picking an orange, you can't just look at whether the skin is red or not. You have to weigh the weight, pinch the elasticity, and smell the fragrance together to make an accurate judgment. The same is true for special ability prediction. Drawing conclusions based on one indicator alone is likely to be wrong.